Why Are the Odds Against Rishi Sunak When He Got a Lot of Things Right?

On the surface, Liz Truss's tenure as prime minister of the UK appears to be coming to an end. She had to abandon her whole economic strategy plan, fire her buddy and finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, and watch as her popularity ratings fell to all-time lows.She is being plotted against by Conservative Party lawmakers, and on Tuesday, she looked to lose the support of two important Tory-leaning publications.

The main issue is that Tory MPs are currently completely split on who should be in charge. There is no reliable succession plan, according to one MP. It's a similar dynamic to that of her predecessor, Boris Johnson, who remained in office well after there seemed to be widespread agreement that he should go down.

There was still no agreement when Johnson ultimately resigned in July, and the party is now desperate to avert another contentious, drawn-out leadership race similar to the one that occurred after his resignation. If an unchallenged successor is crowned, some MPs are ready to move against Truss.

But the most likely candidates confront significant challenges. Take Rishi Sunak, a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, whose grave predictions about Truss's economic plans have largely come true. He gains credibility with markets as a result.

Not a Single Tory

But he has a lot of adversaries within the Tory party. About 100 MPs on the party's ideological right, including fervent Brexiteers and Johnson backers, are committed to preventing a Sunak premiership.

They saw Sunak as the embodiment of the Treasury orthodoxy they had supported Truss in opposing and hold him responsible for Johnson's demise. A minister cautioned that choosing Sunak would fuel more Tory squabbling.There were rumours that Sunak and another candidate, Penny Mordaunt, may run together on a unity ticket. However, a person with knowledge of the situation claimed that Sunak turned down a senior MP's approach who claimed to be speaking on behalf of Mordaunt.

Some Tory MPs think Mordaunt would refuse to allow another contender to be crowned because she wants the position for herself. Another issue with this is that both Sunak and Mordaunt would receive the majority of their support from centrist MPs, the so-called One Nation Group, causing division within that caucus. If it came down to choosing between the two, it's possible that Mordaunt would have more support from the party's right than Sunak.

preventing Sunak and Mordaunt

"ABSOM" — Anyone But Sunak Or Mordaunt — is supported, according to a party member on the right of the party.

Could the party's middle provide another candidate?

Regard has been shown for Ben Wallace's management of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But he's made it seem like he's not eager for the position.

Given that he is now de facto in command of the government, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is regarded as a contender. But he claimed to have ruled out ever becoming prime minister, according to Sky News, late on Monday. He is also utterly despised by right-wing Tory MPs who detested his support for a lockdown during the outbreak.

Former transport secretary Grant Shapps is a savvy businessman who maintains a spreadsheet detailing the positions of Conservative MPs on the leadership issue. However, he has largely avoided the spotlight thus far, and there isn't much pressure on him to take over.

Additionally, it is unlikely that the Brexiteer right will surrender easily. Coworkers claim that Home Secretary Suella Braverman is interested in Truss's position, although she is hardly a unanimous pick. Despite Nadine Dorries, Johnson's main backer, campaigning for his return, there are few signs that he will ever do so.

No Quick Fix

Even if the party can agree on Truss' replacement, there isn't any obvious way for it to happen.

A person with knowledge of the situation said that in order for the influential 1922 Committee, which sets rules on such matters, to nullify the 12-month protection from challenge Truss in theory enjoys after taking office, it would take roughly two-thirds of Tory MPs to call for a change of leadership.

A set of emergency procedures might be created to permit a quick vote by MPs on replacing Truss if that threshold is reached or even if a smaller but sizable number of Tory MPs make the call. The parliamentary party has no desire for the grassroots supporters of Truss from the summer to have the final say this time.

Despite the indicators that the party is still some distance from this occurring, things can move swiftly. One minister claimed that it is more likely that Truss will leave on her own initiative as the pressure mounts and the extent of the opposition becomes obvious. Truss' allies, however, are adamant that she won't.

Tory MPs are in a sort of holding pattern as they wait for a future catalyst to force a shift, such as additional market volatility, a scandal, a potential softening of the government's stance on Brexit, or resignations from the Cabinet.

However, a seasoned Tory cautioned that the chances of a tidy result were slim. They asserted that this party can't be governed at all.